IT TAKES someone extraordinary to generate real belief in moving up from welterweight or super-welterweight and challenging Canelo Alvarez, the undisputed super-middleweight champion.
Jermell Charlo rolled the dice in September 2023 and came up woefully short against the Mexican. Terence “Bud” Crawford, though, is built differently. Days away from attempting to become a three-weight undisputed champion, Crawford is daring to do what most would call impossible. On paper it looks like a mad-scientist experiment – a natural 147-pounder taking on the king at 168 – but Crawford’s blend of supreme skill and unshakeable belief has many convinced he can pull it off.
This is a modern-day super-fight, and the bookmakers reflect just how evenly matched it feels. Canelo is a 20/33 favourite, Crawford sits at 27/20, and the odds show how razor-thin this contest appears.
Prices correct at time of writing – September 8, 2025.
Going the distance
Both men are seasoned 12-round fighters.
Canelo has been scheduled for the championship distance 43 times, going the full route on 22 occasions. His last stoppage came in 2021, when he halted Caleb Plant in round 11 to unify all four belts at 168lbs.
Crawford, with 41 fights overall, has gone 12 rounds since 2014, when he dethroned Ricky Burns in hostile territory in Glasgow. Since then he has boxed 19 scheduled 12-rounders, with just five reaching the scorecards. While Crawford’s résumé isn’t quite as deep as Canelo’s, the question lingers: will Alvarez’s years of settling into 168lbs give him the edge against a man debuting at the weight?
Canelo v Crawford to go the distance?
Yes: 2/7
No: 5/2
Knockout
Together, the pair boast 70 knockouts across 108 fights – a KO rate of nearly 65 percent. Both have granite chins. Canelo has stood up to Gennadiy Golovkin’s power three times, and Crawford, through his many weight climbs, has never faced a puncher of that calibre. Unsurprisingly, the odds suggest stoppage is unlikely. Crawford is a wide 17/2 to win by KO, while Canelo is 15/4 to finish the fight inside the distance.
Value
Beyond the knockout markets, there’s little to separate the two giants. One line being overlooked is the draw14/1. Neither man can afford defeat: Canelo losing to a naturally smaller opponent would tarnish his legacy, while Crawford’s unbeaten aura and skyrocketing reputation since dismantling Errol Spence Jr. make defeat equally unpalatable.
Round betting:
Canelo to win in rounds 10-12 – 11/1
Crawford to win in rounds 10-12 – 22/1
Betting pick
As fight week builds, the odds narrow, reflecting the uncertainty. Crawford may be the better fighter pound-for-pound, but jumping from 154lbs against Israil Madrimov to 168lbs against Canelo is a monumental risk. The safest wager lies in the distance market. Both men will box cautiously, neither willing to gamble recklessly.
Crawford has the skills to turn this into a pure chess match and edge it on points. At 2/1, a Crawford decision could be the bet of the night – and a career-defining moment for one of boxing’s greatest technicians.
Bet Boost:
Canelo Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ and under 10.5 rounds 5/1
Terence Crawford win and over 10.5 rounds 15/8
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