TWO unlikely heavyweights have risen into world title contention over the last couple of years in undefeated German Agit Kabayel, 25-0 (17 KOs), and China’s Zhilei Zhang, 27-2-1, (22 KOs).
Now, the two big men collide on yet another ‘Riyadh Season’ blockbuster bill, with the WBC interim title up for grabs and a possible shot at Oleksandr Usyk in the future.
Here, Boxing News takes a look at how the fight could be won and lost from the perspective of both corners.
ZHILEI ZHANG – KEYS TO VICTORY
Efficiency
Zhang has a reputation of slowing down and has won just one of the four bouts in which he has been taken past the sixth-round, notably tiring against Jerry Forrest and Filip Hrgovic. That being said, Zhang only lost to Joseph Parker via majority-decision and although it looked as if his gas tank had improved, it was instead the efficiency of the ‘Big Bang’ that allowed him to better conserve his energy.
At 41-years-old, we cannot expect Zhang to suddenly have the stamina of Eliud Kipchoge, but the ageing fan-favourite seems to have become less wasteful with his punches and now only throws with full force when he believes he will damage his target, connecting with 44% of power punches, the highest amongst any of CompuBox’s ‘top heavyweights’.
Against an opponent who will assumably attempt to survive the early onslaught and take Zhang into deep waters, the Chinese lefty will need to control his breathing rather than upgrade his oxygen tank.
Size
One of the largest heavyweights in the division, Zhang’s size is both a hindrance and an advantage at times but against Kabayel he can be expected to weigh around 45lbs heavier than his rival. As a result, when Kabayel inevitably attempts to apply pressure up close and restrict Zhang from getting his punches away with full force, a simple lean onto his undefeated rival will drain Kabayel and provide Zhang with a breather.
Equally, Zhang could use his superior strength to bully his opponent and push Kabayel off his chest to allow him to fully extend his punches and utilize his trademarked ‘Chinese power’ to maximum effect.
The straight left
Should Zhang be able to steer clear of a tiresome phonebooth brawl by tagging or physically imposing onto Kabayel, the straight left-hand is the punch that many have found both unavoidable and devastating from Zhang.
Joe Joyce was memorably beaten by almost that punch alone, whilst the usually hard to hit Parker was also dropped from the shotgun of a left that Zhang possesses. It comes at a speed that seems unnatural for a man his size from an awkward southpaw stance.
Kabayel’s chin has held up against Arslanbek Makhmudov and Frank Sanchez but if he can eat a straight-left and continue to march forward undeterred, then his beard may need testing for tungsten steel.
AGIT KABAYEL – KEYS TO VICTORY
Work-rate
Whilst Kabayel may not have the fearsome reputation as a knockout artist, he is far from a back-footed fighter and back-to-back wins over renowned power punchers Makhmudov and Sanchez will give the German confidence that he can approach Zhang with a similar pressure-based approach that saw him score those consecutive knockout wins on Riyadh Seasons bills.
With Zhang famed for tiring in the second half of contests, the Leverkusen-born contender must make his opponent work in the early stages of the affair by walking through the fire, forcing Zhang to throw more than he would like to and trusting his iron chin, that has held up against the big hitters in the past.
Combinations
Similarly, Kabayel’s speed is up there amongst the fastest in the division and he is able to put punches together and throw combinations as well as anyone. Boasting expert shot selection and an ability to throw from a multitude of angles, Kabayel can make up for his inferior one-punch power by putting three or four together whilst on the attack, against what is often a static target and a big body to aim for in Zhang.
Meanwhile, Zhang comfortably throws less punches per round than any of the top heavyweights (27.6 according to CompuBox) and will be unable to keep up with the output and speed of Kabayel if the latter chooses his moments correctly.
Caution
Kabayel mustn’t forget who he is up against, even if he is successful early on. Zhang is an extremely dangerous dance-partner and has the ability to end the contest with one big blow. If Kabayel begins to get over-confident and stay in the pocket for too long then Zhang could put him away, especially early on in the fight.
Instead, Kabayel would be wise to pick when and where he opts to exchange with the heavyweight veteran and step out of range after scoring a combination, knowing that Zhang would likely take any opportunity to rest rather than come chasing after him.
