IF THIS fight was to have materialised, say, back in May of last year – shortly after Mark Chamberlain stopped Gavin Gwynne, a typically durable customer, in four rounds – then we would have been urged to dissect a vastly different matchup.
It just so happens that, since then, the career of Jack Rafferty has followed an upwards trajectory, made steeper by several dramatic finishes, whereas Chamberlain, 17-1 (12 KOs), is yet to prove that his defeat to Josh Padley was, as he most likely sees it, a flash in the pan.
Based largely on his titanic effort against Shakur Stevenson, we now know that Padley is, in fact, a skilful technician – on either side of the ropes, that is – and someone who, on his day, could represent a fiddly night’s work for any world-class operator.
But even so, it is difficult to ignore the fact that Padley, who is not exactly known for his power, was able to floor Chamberlain in their lightweight encounter of last September.
Since then, Chamberlain has made what appears to be a sensible move up to 140lbs, yet the Portsmouth man’s eight-rounder in April told us very little about his future at the new weight.
What we do know with a far greater degree of certainty, however, is that, for the 26-year-old, this fight could represent a vital juncture in his career.
Victory over Rafferty, 26-0 (17 KOs), would not only crown him the British and Commonwealth champion, but also see him cruise down a path of meaningful opportunities and lucrative paydays.
A defeat, on the other hand, could put him at risk of fading into obscurity, desperately attempting to cling onto his title as Turki Alalshikh’s favourite fighter.
In other words, most of the pressure seems to be on Chamberlain, who, for the first time as a pro, is gearing up to occupy the away corner in Altrincham, Greater Manchester.
Equally, that pressure could elevate his performance tomorrow evening, especially with ‘Thunder’ knowing that, without a win, he could suddenly be forced to claw his way out of the boxing wilderness.
In almost stark contrast to the form of Chamberlain, meanwhile, Rafferty has drastically enhanced his career with a ruthless surge of six back-to-back stoppage victories.
His ninth-round finish over Henry Turner, in particular, was enough to convince fans that, even when he is trailing behind, ‘The Demolition Man’ will always carry enough firepower to swing the momentum in his favour.
And it is his momentum – in a much broader sense – that has seemingly given Rafferty a marginal, but no less important, advantage ahead of his assignment tomorrow evening.
Jack Rafferty vs Mark Chamberlain fight prediction
In what would perhaps otherwise be the closest thing to a 50/50 matchup, Rafferty’s greater activity, and indeed a more impressive run of performances, should afford him both a physical and psychological edge over his opponent.
Knowing that his back is against the wall, Chamberlain could rediscover elements of his display against Gwynne and, quite remarkably, dethrone the typically relentless champion.
It is perhaps safer, however, to assume that Rafferty will possess a more authentic degree of confidence – based largely on his last three fights – and, with that advantage, produce a performance that aptly reflects his added momentum.
A late stoppage, even, could emerge from what should swiftly develop into a gruelling battle of attrition.
