SOME might choose to view Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford as a classic bull vs matador encounter, whereas others are perhaps anticipating a pulsating chess match between two masterful technicians.
Either way, there is a library of evidence to suggest that both fighters, despite approaching unfamiliar territory, are unlikely to stray too far from what we have seen from them in recent years.
With Canelo, 63-2-2 (39 KOs), there is an increasing sense that he, based largely on a string of uninspiring performances, is a fighter in decline, while Crawford, 41-0 (31 KOs), oddly enough, appears to be the younger man, even with a three-year age gap making it so that, factually, he is not.
But until their undisputed super-middleweight title showdown unfolds at the Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, tomorrow night, it is simply a matter of predicting – with no real certainty, for that matter – what will emerge as their keys to victory.
Canelo Alvarez – Keys to victory
Aggression
Often, the ringside judges will award points for something called ‘effective aggression’.
What this means is that, during those periods where not a lot seems to be happening, the fighter who marches forward, perhaps while ‘pressing the action’, is likely to come away with a 10-9 round.
So if their fight goes down to the wire, which it very well could, then Canelo’s added aggression might just be enough to edge a razor-thin decision.
But in general, the Mexican would certainly benefit from employing such tactics, as how else would his size advantage – a significant one, at that – be properly exploited?
Footwork
While Crawford is undoubtedly the more fluid mover, as evidenced by his seamless footwork, Canelo must not allow himself to get tied up in knots.
More specifically, the 34-year-old – who, clearly, is not the same slickster that fought Daniel Jacobs – should focus primarily on cutting off the ring and, at least the very least, demonstrate more proficient front-foot pressure than he did against William Scull.
By suffocating the space in which Crawford has to evade his attacks, a degree of smart footwork should see Canelo land with more authority and, better yet, deliver a greater impact with each shot.
Body-punching
Over the years, Canelo has proven to be one of this sport’s most spiteful body-punchers, often lowering his opponent’s guard before dishing out a more potent attack upstairs.
With Crawford, unlike several of his more recent opponents, there is not an especially long torso, but still enough real estate for Canelo to make a considerable dent.
For him, though, there should be less of a desire to fly in like a bulldozer and more a strategy to break his man down, piece by piece.
Particularly with a view to hamper the American’s constant movement, Canelo’s body-punching prowess could certainly emerge as a decisive factor.
Terence Crawford – Keys to victory
Speed
Naturally, the man moving up in weight is always likely to be the quicker fighter, but with Crawford, his speed advantage could be so significant that it makes Canelo appear as if he is moving through cement.
In that sense, the 37-year-old’s in-and-out movement should only be enhanced by his reflexes, sharp enough to force his opponent to contend with a series of blistering flurries.
With the Nebraskakan having fought predominantly faster opponents, too, Canelo – these days, a far more static fighter – should arrive as a welcome change.
Switch-hitting
It is no secret that Crawford fights just as well out of either stance, whether southpaw or orthodox, and can deliver a devastating blow, albeit at a certain weight, with both fists.
And while he may not possess the power to trouble Canelo, ‘Bud’ can certainly disrupt his rhythm by switching regularly from lefty to righty, always with a view to disguise his attacks.
That confusion is then likely to frustrate Canelo, or at least force him to second-guess when to step into range, and, in turn, allow Crawford to control the distance of their fight.
Mentality
While, from a tactical and technical standpoint, there is plenty for Crawford to sink his teeth into, none of those advantages will make the slightest difference unless he has the confidence to fully capitalise on them.
But of course, it just so happens that Crawford’s mindset is as strong as any, suggesting that, unlike several of Canelo’s previous victims, he is unlikely to get overwhelmed by his opponent’s presence.
His unshakable self-belief, in fact, is something which should, especially in the heat of battle, see him make the necessary adjustments to keep outfoxing the super-middleweight king.
