TWO heavyweight gunslingers are travelling in opposite directions, but their destination is the same – victory on Saturday night in Riyadh. For one of them, defeat could mean the end of the road.
Moses Itauma vs Dillian Whyte is the classic “in with the new, out with the old” scenario, and the consensus is that the outcome is a formality. The fast-drawing Itauma is a heavy favourite at 1/9 to dispatch the veteran Whyte, a 11/2 outsider who has faced the toughest names in the sport but never captured the biggest prize.
Going the distance
This is Itauma’s first scheduled 12-round bout, yet the gifted 20-year-old has never been beyond six rounds. The only two times he’s heard the final bell came in six-rounders back in 2023. Since then, and against steadily improving opposition, he’s needed just 11 total rounds to dismantle eight opponents.
Whyte, by contrast, has fought almost eight times as many rounds in his career, and has shown the stamina to hear the final bell. But at 37, with form dipping, and facing a fast, explosive puncher like Itauma, surviving the distance will be a tall order.
Itauma v Whyte to go the distance?
Yes – 11/2
No – 1/9
Knockout
The likeliest ending to Saturday night’s main event is by stoppage. Between them, Itauma and Whyte boast 31 knockouts from 46 combined wins – a 67% KO rate. Itauma makes no secret of his “job” being to knock opponents out, but it’s his cold-blooded precision and natural power that make him such a threat.
Whyte, meanwhile, has slowed with age – never a speedster to begin with – and can ill afford any lapses. One mistake could be lights out. The bookmakers expect a finish, with Itauma 2/9 to win by KO and Whyte a much longer 17/2.
Value
Those seeking value will need to look beyond simply picking a winner. In the first three rounds, Whyte is likely to keep a tight guard, minimising openings for Itauma’s trademark fast starts.
Whyte’s earliest defeat came in 2020, when Alexander Povetkin capitalised on a brief lapse to knock him out in round five. Itauma’s last eight fights have ended in either round one or two – but can he do that against someone as rugged as Whyte?
Round betting:
Itauma to win in rounds 1-3 – 9/4
Whyte to win in rounds 1-3 – 28/1
Betting pick
It’s hard to make a case for anything other than an Itauma win. Whyte has arrived in excellent shape, underlining how seriously he’s treating what could be his last chance in the sport.
Itauma’s composure means he won’t rush his work, but there will be an urge to impress and further cement his status as boxing’s premier young heavyweight. His knack for unsettling opponents and landing shots they never see coming spells danger for a past-prime Whyte.
The underdog may survive the early blitz, but the smart money is on Itauma breaking through between rounds 4 and 6 at 15/8. For a safer alternative, consider the fight to go over 5.5 rounds at 11/10.
Bet365 Bet Boost: Moses Itauma by KO/TKO/DQ and over 4.5 rounds – 2/1
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