FOR all of Naoya Inoue’s brilliance, his recent lapses in concentration will give backers of Murodjon Akhmadaliev a glimmer of belief ahead of their undisputed super-bantamweight clash on Sunday, September 14.
Inoue hit the canvas against Luis Nery in May 2024 and again against Ramon Cardenas in May 2025. On both occasions, the 122lb division held its breath, wondering if the aura of invincibility was finally about to crack. Instead, the “Monster” showed not just his firepower and finesse, but also the resilience to recover, regroup, and win emphatically.
That makes Sunday’s showdown intriguing. Inoue is expected to be sharper and more focused than ever, but Akhmadaliev’s pedigree makes him one of the most dangerous tests of the Japanese superstar’s career. Is there value in siding with the champion, or is Akhmadaliev worth a gamble at the odds? Here’s a look at the Bet365 markets.
To win outright:
Naoya Inoue 1/10
Murodjon Akhmadaliev 6/1
Prices correct at time of writing – September 12, 2025.
Going the distance
It’s been nearly six years since Inoue went the full route. On that night he was tested harder by 36-year-old veteran Nonito Donaire than many predicted, but since then it’s been business as usual for a champion boasting a 90% knockout ratio – among the highest in boxing today.
Akhmadaliev, meanwhile, has gone the distance in just four of his 15 wins. His amateur background, sharp southpaw skills, and high boxing IQ suggest he could force Inoue into a tactical battle. If both men respect each other’s power, this fight may resemble a chess match that builds slowly before catching fire in the later rounds.
Inoue v Akhmadaliev to go the distance?
Knockout
The knockout has become Inoue’s calling card. Much like a prime Mike Tyson, fans show up expecting devastation. The 2/5 price on an Inoue KO tells its own story: oddsmakers don’t see many surviving his speed, precision, and two-fisted power.
Akhmadaliev has seen plenty of styles across a decorated amateur career, but nothing quite like Inoue’s blend of explosiveness and fundamentals. Any lapse in concentration will be punished. The big unknown is whether the Uzbekistani challenger can take the champion’s best shots for 12 rounds.
Fight outcome:
Inoue by KO, TKO or DQ 2/5
Akhmadaliev by KO, TKO, or DQ 12/1
Where’s the value?
Akhmadaliev to win by decision or technical decision at 16/1 offers eye-catching value. The southpaw is unlikely to chase an early finish; instead, he’ll aim to drag Inoue into a gruelling fight and capitalise late.
Inoue, on the other hand, may box cautiously in the opening rounds before unleashing once he spots a weakness. History shows he doesn’t hesitate when the opportunity arises.
Round betting:
Inoue to win in rounds 4-6 – 4/1
Akhmadaliev to win in rounds – 10-12 – 40/1
Betting pick
Activity could be the deciding factor. Akhmadaliev has boxed only twice in the past two years, while Inoue has fought five times in that span, looking electric despite those brief moments of vulnerability.
Winning in Japan against one of the sport’s true pound-for-pound stars looks like too big an ask. Expect Akhmadaliev to have his moments, and perhaps even floor the champion, but ultimately the firepower will prove overwhelming. Inoue to retain his titles in rounds 10-12.
Bet365 Bet Boost:
Naoya Inoue to win by KO, TKO or DQ
Over 8.5 rounds
15/4
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