THIS season’s Premier League title race has already been written off by some as a formality, with Liverpool’s summer signings making rivals appear second best before a ball was even kicked. Over at Windsor Park in Belfast this Saturday night, Limerick’s Paddy Donovan finds himself under similar scrutiny. Many believe the vacant IBF welterweight title is already his for the taking.
Local favourite Lewis Crocker enters as a distant second in the betting, six months on from their controversial first meeting. Back in March, Donovan looked on the brink of victory before a disqualification in the eighth round for an illegal punch left him heartbroken and the rivalry unresolved.
So, is this the formality the odds suggest? Or can Crocker, battered and outclassed last time, find a way to turn the script on its head? Let’s take a look at the markets from Bet365.
To win outright:
Lewis Crocker 9/2
Paddy Donovan 1/7
Prices correct at time of writing – September 11, 2025.
Going the distance
Before their first fight, it was Crocker who carried the reputation as the heavier puncher, despite Donovan boasting the better knockout ratio. But on the night, it was Donovan’s sharpness and precision that left Crocker staggering. Only the disqualification spared the Belfast man from a likely stoppage defeat.
Crocker will need to raise his game dramatically to survive 12 rounds, never mind win. On paper, Donovan remains the stronger bet to close the show inside the distance.
Crocker v Donovan to go the distance?
Knockout
Neither fighter is a single-shot knockout artist. Their stoppages usually come through accumulation — Donovan through skill and variety, Crocker through relentless pressure and body work. But against someone as versatile as Donovan, Crocker’s usual tools may not be enough.
Donovan must guard against complacency, while Crocker has to channel the Windsor Park crowd without letting his defence unravel as it did in March.
Fight outcome:
Crocker by KO, TKO or DQ 8/1
Donovan by KO, TKO, or DQ 4/6
Where’s the value?
Boxing and controversy are no strangers. If Crocker can grit it out and hear the final bell, the Belfast man by split decision at 50/1 is eye-catching. But that requires a career-best performance.
Donovan to win in rounds 7-9 at 10/3 also has strong appeal. At Thursday’s face-off, he hinted that Crocker’s camp hadn’t gone smoothly — if true, Donovan may start fast. Crocker’s heart and pride should keep him beyond six, but Donovan to win in rounds 1-6 at 3/1 cannot be dismissed. Another intriguing punt is Donovan to score a knockdown in rounds 1-2 at 6/1.
Round betting:
Crocker to win in rounds 10-12 – 28/1
Donovan to win in rounds 4-6 – 9/2
Betting pick
All the evidence from March points one way. Donovan looks the superior technician, the more complete fighter, and the man with the mental edge. Crocker will give everything in front of his home crowd, but this may be a case of styles making fights.
The pick is Paddy Donovan to win inside the distance in rounds 7-9 and claim the vacant IBF welterweight crown.
Bet365 Bet Boost:
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