1. Mayweather stops McGregor in the opening round
LIKELIHOOD: 10 per cent
HOW: McGregor charges out like a bull and, eager to make an impression, misses wildly and is caught with right hand. The blow is a surprise to the Irishman, his legs wobble badly and he stumbles to the floor. He rises, but walks straight into more punishment. Concerned McGregor is in deep trouble, referee Robert Byrd steps in to end the contest. Needless to say, the crowd and McGregor are incensed.
2. McGregor flattens Mayweather
LIKELIHOOD: 1 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: Suddenly, a fighter’s resistance can start to fade as they get older, particularly after a long layoff. Mayweather just doesn’t look like the same fighter, and is struggling with McGregor’s relentless pressure, yet still looks superior in the early going. Then the unthinkable happens in the fifth. McGregor slams a right-left into the American’s body during a clinch, and as Mayweather pulls away, a straight left catches him flush. Down he goes for the count.
3. Sucker punch
LIKELIHOOD: 2 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: The action is untidy from the off, as the pair lock arms regularly. In the third, McGregor looks away, and leaves himself wide open after the referee splits them apart. Mayweather – ala his victory over 2011 Victor Ortiz – puts everything into a right hand and McGregor goes down hard.
4. McGregor loses by disqualification
LIKELIHOOD: 15 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: Thoroughly fed up with being outboxed, McGregor begins to bend and break the rules. Mayweather – never one to keep quiet in the face of a foul – grumbles at every opportunity. After McGregor threatens to launch a kick at Mayweather, only to pull back and then clatter him on the back of the head as Floyd complains, the referee chucks the Irishman out.
5. McGregor wins on points
LIKELIHOOD: 0.05 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: Aggressive from the start, McGregor exposes severe erosion in Mayweather. Even so, the veteran is intelligent with his counters, and scores effectively throughout. But McGregor won’t stop pressing, or take a backward step. At the end of 12 rounds, Mayweather looks like a clear if lacklustre victor yet the judges notch 115-113, 116-112 scores for McGregor which trumps the only realistic tally, 117-111, for the former king.
6. Doctor says enough is enough
LIKELIHOOD: 30 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: McGregor’s scar tissue is ripped open early, and as a right bounces off his nose in the fifth, blood shoots out of his hooter too. Bedraggled and a blood-stained mess the referee calls the doctor to take a look. It’s over. “This isn’t a cut where I come from,” McGregor protests in the press conference.
7. It ends in a no-contest
LIKELIHOOD: 5 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: After Mayweather controls the first two rounds with ease, McGregor catches “Money” after the bell. Incensed, Mayweather fires back, the corners burst into the ring, a brawl breaks out, some of the crowd riot and the referee has no option but to call a halt to the whole sorry spectacle.
8. Mayweather stops McGregor with a body shot
LIKELIHOOD: 50 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: The opening rounds are cagey as Mayweather decides to observe rather than attack. McGregor grows in confidence, tagging Mayweather inside. Mayweather sets a trap and invites the Irishman to do it again. He tries, but Mayweather steps to the side and buries a right hand deep into McGregor’s ribs. He falls, breathless, and the referee reaches ‘10’.
9. The contest ends in a draw
LIKELIHOOD: 0.05 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: McGregor chases the contest aggressively for the first four rounds, but Mayweather doesn’t look in any trouble. The Las Vegas resident takes control in the fifth, and by the sixth it’s completely one-sided. The pair come together in the seventh, and as McGregor tries desperately to hold, the heads clash. McGregor is badly cut and cannot continue. It goes to the cards. A score of 59-55 looks about right, but two scores of 57-57 mean the bout is a draw.
10. McGregor is rescued by the referee in the middle rounds
LIKELIHOOD: 70 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: As early as the second round it’s abundantly clear the upset is not going to happen. Mayweather is enjoying himself, jarring back the fading McGregor’s head, spitefully attacking the body, making it all look so easy. At the end of the fifth, the referee warns the Irishman’s corner he will stop the fight in the next if the trend doesn’t change. Floyd decides enough is enough, ups his work-rate and Byrd signals it’s all over.
11. McGregor quits
LIKELIHOOD: 25 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: McGregor realises very quickly he’s bitten off far more than he can chew. Dropped in the second and third rounds but not badly hurt, he’s chasing the contest by the fourth. It plays into Mayweather’s hands who spitefully mocks the efforts of his opponent. The thrashing continues and, midway through the fifth, an exasperated and exhausted McGregor turns his back to signal he wants no more.
12. The white towel of surrender
LIKELIHOOD: 35 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: The mismatch many predict is apparent almost immediately. McGregor can’t get anywhere near his accomplished rival, and a slashing right hand opens a cut before the close of the first. The punishment rolls on, McGregor’s head is rocked back several times in the second. In the fourth he finds himself on the floor and as he hits the canvas, a towel from his corner joins him.
13. Mayweather retires on his stool
LIKELIHOOD: 1 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: An early clash of heads opens a gaping wound on Mayweather. In the second round, the favourite’s left arm is bent awkwardly in a clinch and it’s immediately clear he’s badly injured. Though still bossing the action with his right, Mayweather is getting caught frequently. Slightly bewildered and concerned, Floyd signals he’s had enough after eight rounds.
14. Mayweather wins a landslide points decision
LIKELIHOOD: 50 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: From the opening bell, Mayweather is the better fighter. For the first half of the contest it looks like a stoppage is nigh but McGregor, far more robust than predicted, refuses to fall. Content he can coast to victory, Mayweather takes his foot off the gas and does just that. At the end of the bout, two judges score the contest 120-108, while the other score of 117-113 bewilders the entire arena.
15. Brutal late rounds knockout
LIKELIHOOD: 10 per cent
HOW IT MIGHT HAPPEN: Well behind on points but showing desire and surprisingly good stamina, McGregor continues to chase the impossible as the rounds tick down. His desperation costs him dear, though. Floyd’s left hook clatters home at the start of the 12th, but the warning shot is ignored. So Mayweather finds the room to double his right, adding extra venom to the second shot, and McGregor slams to the floor.
