BACK in December, Bruno Surace travelled to Tijuana and scored the statistically most significant upset of 2024 as well as a Knockout of the Year contender as he halted Jaime Munguia on away soil.
Fast-forward six months, and the pair are set to meet again. Munguia is desperate to get his world title challenge back on track and hand Surace a similarly devastating defeat to the one he was dealt.
Munguia, 44-2 (35 KOs), has often been criticised for the calibre of his opponents. That said, his run since 2023 cannot be ridiculed. Losing to Canelo Alvarez in a bid for the undisputed super-middleweight title was a blow, yet Munguia emerged with credit. Overcoming the likes of Sergiy Derevyanchenko, John Ryder and Erik Bazinyan before the Surace, 26-0-2 (5 KOs), fight showed his eligibility for the Canelo chance.
As a result, Munguia stepped through the ropes to face the Frenchman as a monumental favourite. Many assumed he would be too strong for the unproven, non-punching and overlooked visitor, who was yet to fight outside of his home country.
However, after dropping Surace in the second round and seemingly cruising to a 45th career victory, Munguia lowered his hands in the sixth and was made to pay the price. Surace landed a seismic right-hand to send the Mexican crashing into the canvas.
The crowd was stunned into silence. The lone screams of joy and surprise from the Surace corner have surely haunted Munguia since. Surace has since revelled in his newfound superstardom and will be keen to prove that his triumph was no fluke.
The pair will meet again on Saturday night in Riyadh, as the highlight of the Canelo-Scull undercard. Munguia knows he must win if he is to retain his reputation as an elite fighter at 168lbs. Surace could emerge as a title contender if he can repeat his fairytale win.
Is Munguia too short of a price?
Munguia was priced at 1/20 to overcome Surace (16/1) in their first encounter. That was a similar offering to the odds and eventual outcome of Andy Ruiz’s colossal heavyweight upset win over Anthony Joshua in 2019.
For Joshua-Ruiz II, the odds understandably adjusted, with Joshua then deemed as a 4/9 shot to level the scores and Ruiz around 2/1 to defeat the Brit for a second time.
Whereas, for Munguia-Surace II, although the pedigree of Munguia should mean he remains the favourite, bookmakers seem almost undeterred by their first contest. Munguia goes out to just 1/10 to get his groove back while Surace maintains position as a large underdog (6/1), with bet365.
Adding to the fact that their rematch is taking place on neutral ground rather than in Mexico, plus it being unclear how much the knockout defeat has taken out of Munguia, all the value in the betting appears to lie with Surace.
Jaime Munguia vs. Bruno Surace II Fight Prediction
That being said, BN Online are siding with a Jaime Munguia decision, anticipating a more tentative approach from Munguia as the 28-year-old bids to bounce back from a first career defeat against the man who stopped him.
Usually swarming his opposition with output, unbothered by the punches being returned, Saturday may well mark a new chapter in the career of a more cautious Munguia. In a must-win clash, we believe Munguia will take less risks and accept a wide decision win rather than push for the stoppage.
